Judicious ending of isolation based on reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) cycle threshold only for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) requiring in-hospital therapy for longer than 20 days after symptom onset.

BACKGROUND: For patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) requiring hospitalization, extending isolation is warranted. As a cautious protocol, ending isolation based on polymerase chain reaction cycle threshold (Ct) value was introduced for patients requiring therapy for >20 days after symptom onset. METHOD: We compared a Ct-based strategy using Smart Gene® between March 2022 and January 2023 with a preceding control period (March 2021 to February 2022) when two consecutive negative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction tests using FilmArray® were required for ending isolation. Ct was evaluated on day 21, and ending isolation was permitted in patients with Ct ≥ 38. Although patients with Ct 35-37 were transferred to a non-COVID-19 ward, isolation was continued. RESULTS: The duration of stay on a COVID-19 ward in the Ct group was 9.7 days shorter than that in controls. The cumulative number of tests was 3.7 in controls and 1.2 in the Ct group. There was no nosocomial transmission after ending isolation in either group. The number of days from symptom onset to testing was 20.7 ± 2.1 in Ct group, and five patients had Ct < 35, nine Ct 35-37, and 71 Ct ≥ 38. No patients were moderately or severely immunocompromised. Steroid use was an independent risk factor for prolonged low Ct (odds ratio 9.40, 95% confidence interval 2.31-38.15, p = 0.002) CONCLUSIONS: The efficacy of ending isolation based on Ct values could improve bed utilization without the risk of transmission among patients with COVID-19 requiring therapy for >20 days after symptom onset.

A prediction rule for severe adverse events in all inpatients with community-acquired pneumonia: a multicenter observational study.

BACKGROUND: Prediction of inpatients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) at high risk for severe adverse events (SAEs) requiring higher-intensity treatment is critical. However, evidence regarding prediction rules applicable to all patients with CAP including those with healthcare-associated pneumonia (HCAP) is limited. The objective of this study is to develop and validate a new prediction system for SAEs in inpatients with CAP. METHODS: Logistic regression analysis was performed in 1334 inpatients of a prospective multicenter study to develop a multivariate model predicting SAEs (death, requirement of mechanical ventilation, and vasopressor support within 30 days after diagnosis). The developed ALL-COP-SCORE rule based on the multivariate model was validated in 643 inpatients in another prospective multicenter study. RESULTS: The ALL-COP SCORE rule included albumin (< 2 g/dL, 2 points; 2-3 g/dL, 1 point), white blood cell (< 4000 cells/µL, 3 points), chronic lung disease (1 point), confusion (2 points), PaO2/FIO2 ratio (< 200 mmHg, 3 points; 200-300 mmHg, 1 point), potassium (≥ 5.0 mEq/L, 2 points), arterial pH (< 7.35, 2 points), systolic blood pressure (< 90 mmHg, 2 points), PaCO2 (> 45 mmHg, 2 points), HCO3- (< 20 mmol/L, 1 point), respiratory rate (≥ 30 breaths/min, 1 point), pleural effusion (1 point), and extent of chest radiographical infiltration in unilateral lung (> 2/3, 2 points; 1/2-2/3, 1 point). Patients with 4-5, 6-7, and ≥ 8 points had 17%, 35%, and 52% increase in the probability of SAEs, respectively, whereas the probability of SAEs was 3% in patients with ≤ 3 points. The ALL-COP SCORE rule exhibited a higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.85) compared with the other predictive models, and an ALL-COP SCORE threshold of ≥ 4 points exhibited 92% sensitivity and 60% specificity. CONCLUSIONS: ALL-COP SCORE rule can be useful to predict SAEs and aid in decision-making on treatment intensity for all inpatients with CAP including those with HCAP. Higher-intensity treatment should be considered in patients with CAP and an ALL-COP SCORE threshold of ≥ 4 points. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study was registered with the University Medical Information Network in Japan, registration numbers UMIN000003306 and UMIN000009837.